By Mathaus Schwarzen
Business Reporter
If everything goes according to plan, Blount County will soon have a Costco Wholesale, three Walmart Supercenters and a BJ’s Wholesale Club — five big-box retailers, or a 66% increase from 2025.
That growth has left many Blount County residents wondering why national retailers are showing such strong interest in the area.
Blount County, along with the greater Knoxville metropolitan area, is emerging as a growth market, and national companies are moving to secure their positions. Interviews and data suggest many are building not for 2026, but for 2036.
Projects such as the planned Costco at Springbrook Farm and the Walmart under construction off Lamar Alexander Parkway reflect a changing commercial landscape. For local business owners, that shift may reshape where customers, labor and commercial activity concentrate over the next decade.
Economics
Local retailers are likely to feel the impact of big-box expansion unevenly, depending on location and business model.
Michael Kofoed, an economist at the University of Tennessee, said businesses most at risk include smaller retailers, grocery stores and “mom and pop” operations — all of which he described as substitutes for national chains. New national retailers are often located in more convenient areas and can offer lower prices that compete directly for consumer spending.
Businesses that may benefit include service-based “complementary” industries, such as home builders and restaurants, Kofoed said. These businesses often experience a sales increase driven by higher traffic and increased demand tied to surrounding development.
Blount County’s appeal, Kofoed said, lies in its population growth and comparatively affordable land. According to the East Tennessee Economic Development Agency, the county’s population has increased 13% over the past decade. Data from United Way of Blount County shows the number of households below the poverty line fell 19% between 2016 and 2023.
Those trends point to a growing consumer base and rising spending capacity.
“If I’m Costco,” Kofoed said, “I’m going to target a place that’s booming, where the population is going to grow with the business and land is cheap now, so the value of my assets go up with time.”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data shows the number of private business establishments in Blount County has increased 50% since 2015, mirroring growth in Knox County and intensifying competition for limited commercial land.
Kofoed said Walmart and Costco target different demographics.
“Walmart is marketing itself towards a lower income consumer who might not be able to drive half an hour to go to Costco,” Kofoed said. At Costco, he added, “The good quality is more targeted toward a middle or upper middle class consumer with lots of kids.”
Sales tax revenue often increases with growth, Kofoed said, but attributing gains to a single retailer is complicated. New stores can boost total collections, but some sales are redistributed from nearby businesses rather than representing new spending.
Business opportunities
For employers, competition for labor is likely to intensify, pushing wages higher even in traditionally lower-paying sectors.
The Knoxville metropolitan area has just under 1 million residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That population size places the region in what Blount Partnership Communications Director Jeff Muir described as “the next level of places businesses look to relocate or expand.”
Commercial real estate broker Tim Martin said national businesses entering Blount County often encounter local governments that are easier to work with than those in larger markets.
“If you go to other markets, it takes you a year to get a permit. You can come to Alcoa or Maryville and the process is a lot quicker,” he said.
Signs of growth are visible across the region. McGhee Tyson Airport, operating under record demand, has launched expansion initiatives to increase capacity. New air carriers such as Southwest Airlines have announced service to the area, signaling increased visitor demand.
In Great Smoky Mountains National Park, visitation increased 20% between 2015 and 2024. According to the National Park Service, the park’s 12.2 million visitors spent an estimated $2.2 billion in gateway communities and supported 33,700 jobs.
An expanding business base also creates more employment opportunities. Muir said economic diversification helps protect the region from downturns tied to a single major employer.
Per capita income in both Knox and Blount counties increased 51% from 2016 to 2023, according to Federal Reserve data, although Knox County remains higher. Adjusted for inflation — which reduced purchasing power by roughly 29% over the same period — the gains still represent meaningful real wage growth.
Costco and Walmart are expected to be major employers. In 2025, Costco announced it would raise its starting wage to $20 an hour. Walmart reported last year that its 46,695 Tennessee employees earned an average wage of $18.49 an hour.
Housing costs may also influence wages. Federal Reserve data shows median housing list prices in Blount County have risen 89% since 2016.
“With growth, there come a number of issues, and housing is one of those things,” Muir said. “How do you get your employees places to live that are close enough that they can get to your place of business?”
Infrastructure
For developers and landowners, publicly funded utilities and road improvements can lower barriers for future projects on nearby parcels.
Walmart’s projected traffic increases will require a new traffic signal on Lamar Alexander Parkway and an access road at the rear of the property, both funded by the city of Maryville.
The city has budgeted $400,000 for the traffic signal and requested $1.3 million for the access road in next year’s budget, although the final amount has not been determined.
Maryville has also allocated $600,000 to extend sewer service to the site, which Development Services Director Angie Luckie said will benefit surrounding properties.
“So it’s not just getting sewer to Walmart, it’s getting sewer to all of those properties that aren’t on it right now and don’t have access,” she said.
Walmart’s media team did not respond to a Jan. 23 request for comment.
In Alcoa, the city has signed a five-year payment-in-lieu-of-taxes agreement with Costco. The city will construct and extend Werner Avenue to Faraday Street, install utilities and sidewalks, and add a traffic signal at Faraday Street and Tesla Boulevard.
The city is awaiting bids before finalizing the project budget. Under the agreement, Alcoa will track its expenses and be reimbursed if Costco does not proceed.
Alcoa has already spent $1.2 million on stormwater infrastructure. Once completed, the project will open additional interior acreage at Springbrook Farm for future development.
Under the development agreement, Costco will open by June 30, invest at least $1 million in construction and create a minimum of 100 jobs. In return, the company will convey the land to the Alcoa Industrial Development Board and make annual payments of just under $24,000 for five years, reflecting the unimproved land value.
A Costco representative declined to comment.
Zoning
For investors, limited availability of large parcels may increase pressure on smaller, well-located sites.
At Springbrook Farm, most land near the proposed Costco site is zoned mixed-use or planned commercial development, allowing for a range of uses as the city center develops.
Near the Walmart site on Lamar Alexander Parkway, properties are primarily zoned residential on the Maryville side, with a concentrated business and transportation zone near the development. Luckie said the city aims to keep high-traffic uses near roads capable of handling increased volumes.
On the county side, surrounding parcels are zoned commercial or suburbanizing, a classification that allows one or two single-family dwellings or manufactured homes by right.
Commercial listing platforms such as Loop and Crexi show relatively few parcels for sale near both developments, a trend that typically pushes land prices and rents higher.
One nearby suburbanizing parcel advertises the potential for several hundred homes on nearly 18 acres, contingent on sewer access.
On the industrial side, Muir said Blount County’s prepared industrial parks are nearly at capacity. While the Pellissippi Place business park is under development to the north, large industrial sites are becoming increasingly scarce.
“You’re not going to find a 250-acre parcel in Blount County anymore like where Smith and Wesson relocated,” he said. “So it’s a matter of finding what you can.”
Cultural
For site selectors, community opposition can represent schedule risk, not just political noise.
Tennessee ranks among the 10 fastest-growing states, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Kofoed said some national retailers may be following customers who relocated from northern and western states, creating what he described as “toxic nostalgia.”
When large national retailers threaten familiar local businesses, public resistance can emerge regardless of potential economic benefits.
Residents may favor preserving higher-priced local stores over the convenience and tax revenue of a supercenter.
Those opinions can influence local officials and affect development timelines.
Brian Cox, a Blount County resident and former business journalist, said he is concerned about the Walmart’s proximity to the historic Parkway Drive-In Theatre.
“The drive-in is a throwback to the wonderful past of the Maryville community, and its preservation to me is more important than a Walmart,” he said. “Walmarts are a dime a dozen.”
Kenneth Wade, who lives near the development, said he welcomes the convenience. He and his wife are senior citizens, and their current grocery and pharmacy options require a 40-minute round trip.
Public sentiment may not halt development, but it can add time, cost and uncertainty — factors businesses weigh when expanding.
Population
For business owners, growth is already measurable, and retail often follows traffic before population counts catch up.
Traffic counts near the Walmart site on Lamar Alexander Parkway have increased significantly. Since 2020, estimated annual average daily traffic rose from about 21,700 vehicles to 26,800 — a 24% increase.
Population growth is expected to continue. Blount County’s population was estimated at approximately 144,000 in 2025, according to ETEDA. By 2035, it is projected to reach 160,000, an 11% increase. Knox County is expected to add roughly 70,000 residents during the same period.
Developers are responding. In Alcoa, multifamily housing is underway near Topside Road and Springbrook Farm. Maryville is expanding its high school, and county officials are considering a new elementary school in Walland.
The question is not whether Blount County will grow, but how. υ
